Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Refined Products Price Modeling, Forecast and Predictions

Kyoso Oil
Last Update May 16, 2024
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About This Course

An essential component of decision-making in the energy sector is oil prices. Stakeholders in the energy industry are constantly confronted with factors and data that could negatively or positively impact oil prices. These data are drawn from analysis of geopolitical events, changes in supply and demand, and the financial markets.

What are the factors that determine the price of oil?

As a crucial aspect of the global economy, various factors play a role in determining oil prices. First, demand and supply are vital factors that impact oil prices. An increased supply of natural gases typically results in reduced oil prices, while a decrease in supply means higher oil prices. Aside from these factors, other factors that impact the prices of oil are:

  • The level of oil in storage
  • Volumes of oil import and export
  • Investing in oil and gas drilling
  • Temporary price fluctuations

Learning Objectives

Understand how to manage and optimize an organization’s energy risk exposure
Understand the principles involved in crude oil and natural gas price modeling and forecasting
Recognize estimated returns and how to calculate volatilities in energy prices
Identify the basics of Excel mechanics and its functionality in the oil and gas sectors
Execute both comparable company and transaction analysis
Understand how to implement valuation and financial modeling best practices
Learn about option pricing and the factors that affect crude oil and natural gas price modeling
Understand how to utilize machine learning in crude oil and natural gas forecasting
Understand the impacts of forecasting and prediction analysis on the energy sector

Target Audience

  • Financial Managers:tasked with performing financial analyses and managing the finances of an organization or government body
  • Financial Planners:responsible for meeting the short-term and long-term financial needs of clients
  • Maintenance supervisors:tasked with supervising the safe and efficient management of refinery equipment
  • Energy traders:charged with facilitating transactions among buyers and sellers of energy products
  • Risk managers:responsible for managing the risks of a firm, its reputation, assets, employees, and interests of stakeholders
  • Quantitative analysts:tasked with developing and implementing complex models to solve risk management and financial challenges
  • Investment bankers:charged with helping oil firms profit from financial services such as debt and equity financing
  • Policymakers:responsible for researching and evaluating energy data and developing policies that impact the energy sector
  • Chief Accounting Officers:responsible for overseeing the accounting functions of a company and also ensuring the company is tax compliant
  • Energy forecasting analysts:tasked with applying mathematical and statistical modeling to design short and long-term energy forecasts
  • Energy analysts:responsible for evaluating data on energy use, analyzing energy efficiency, and designing energy models for oil and gas companies
  • Professionalsinterested in learning about the principles and practice of price modeling and forecasting in the crude oil and natural gas industry
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